GST Staff

Best NBA Prop Bets Today 11-22-2024

NBA Prop Picks: Sabonis Over, Dosunmu Under, Embiid Under

Last updated: Nov 22, 2024 10:37 AM EST

Today's Best Bets: Analysis & Predictions

Domantas Sabonis (SAC) Over 28.5 Points + Rebounds

Fri, Nov 22, 10:30 PM EST
Domantas Sabonis has been on a tear recently, making the OVER 28.5 Combined Points + Rebounds a very enticing bet. In his last 5 games, the Sacramento Kings big man is averaging 20.0 points and a whopping 11.6 rebounds per game. That's a combined 31.6 points and rebounds, easily clearing the 28.5 line. Sabonis has topped that mark in 4 out of his last 5 games (80% hit rate).
Looking at his broader season numbers only reinforces this bet. Sabonis is posting averages of 20.2 points and 12.5 rebounds per game, combining for 32.7 points and boards. He's hit the over in 11 of 13 games this season, an incredible 84.6% win rate. With his elite 20.5% usage rate and 36.5 minutes per game, Sabonis gets every opportunity to rack up points and rebounds.
Sabonis is as consistent as they come, making the over 28.5 points + rebounds very appealing even at -125 odds. 
I'm taking the over here - Sabonis' dominant inside presence and rebounding prowess make this a smart bet to back.

Ayo Dosunmu (CHI) Under 16.5 Points + Assists

Fri, Nov 22, 08:00 PM EST
Over the last 5 games, Dosunmu has averaged just 11.4 points and 4.0 assists per game, combining for 15.4 points+assists. This falls well below the 16.5 total for this bet.
Furthermore, Dosunmu's scoring has been relatively inconsistent, with a standard deviation of 5.6 points around his 10.9 season average. His assist numbers are also volatile, ranging from 1 to 6 per game. This variability suggests he's unlikely to have an outlier game significantly exceeding his recent production.
Digging deeper, Dosunmu's usage rate of 17.0% over the last 5 games indicates a complementary role, making high scoring outputs less likely. His field goal percentage of 51.9% during this stretch is solid, however. With the Bulls' deep rotation, Dosunmu staying under 16.5 points+assists appears very reasonable.

Based on his steady but unspectacular recent numbers and the statistical trends, I'm taking the under on Ayo Dosunmu's combined points and assists total for this matchup.

Joel Embiid (PHI) Under 27.5 Points

Fri, Nov 22, 07:00 PM EST
Embiid has notably missed quite a few games this season already. In his first 4 games, Embiid has averaged just 19.75 points per game, well below the bet total. His scoring has been inconsistent, ranging from a high of 35 points to a low of just 11.
Digging deeper, Embiid's shooting efficiency has been subpar as well. He's shooting just 36.15% from the field and 18.3% from three-point range.
While Embiid's usage rate remains at 30%, his limited efficiency combined with the Nets' defensive focus could lead to another relatively quiet scoring output. I'm taking the UNDER 27.5 points based on Embiid's recent scoring woes and Brooklyn's ability to make life difficult for the big man.
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