Today’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets: Free NBA Bets & Predictions
We use our own statistics tools to identify the most profitable NBA prop bets available each day. We evaluate bets based on the expected probability of winning the bet as well as the potential profit of the bet. We’ve developed tools that allow us to find the highest ROI NBA bets every day. We highlight our favorite NBA prop bets on this site each day. We do our best to provide the best NBA bets as well as identifying the most profitable player props each day, however it’s important to always use good bankroll management when deciding how much to bet, take a look at our guide to bankroll management.
In our daily article we select our favorite bets of the day, and try to lay out why it could be a good bet to place using data. For each bet we share the data on the matchup and give you the most important statistics to make informed bets.
Always remember that game conditions and betting lines may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Nic Claxton (BKN) Under 8.5 Rebounds
In the last two seasons, Claxton has averaged around 5 rebounds per game. In the first game of the season he had 10 rebounds, and played about 20% more minutes that he had in previous seasons. I don’t think one game should move his prop line that much though.
In terms of minutes, I think he’ll continue to get more time (in the 22-25 minutes per game range), but this line seems off to me. But in terms of rebounds, I imagine he will come back towards his mean.
Ja Morant (MEM) Under 2.5 3-Pointers
In his first three seasons, Ja Morant averaged a little over 1 3-pointer per game. In the first game of the season, despite no significant minutes bump, scored three 3-pointers.
This is another case of the line adjusting too much and having a lot of recency bias. Until I see this as a trend for him, I will bet into this line.
Jimmy Butler (MIA) Under 24.5 Points
For the most part, Jimmy Butler has been a 20 points per game guy his whole career. In the first game, Jimmy Butler scored 24 exactly. He should once again regress closer to his mean.
In addition, The Heat are playing The Celtics, which will likely be a strong matchup and be able to keep Butler under control.
Jarred Vanderbilt (UTA) Under 17.5 Pts+Reb+Ast
In the first game of the season, Vanderbilt has 20 points, rebounds and assists. Previously he was all over the place, but significantly less.
His minutes per game in the first game was also down a bit from last year, so his efficiency was the only the really up. I imagine it was an outlier performance and should regress back down.
Do you play PrizePicks? Check out our NBA PrizePicks plays today (10/21/22)!