It’s time for Week 12 to kick off and we have three NFL games on Thanksgiving this year!
We’ve got everything in one article: best bets and a rundown for each of the games and their matchup. Happy Thanksgiving!
Best Bets for Thanksgiving NFL Games Today
Detroit Lions +9.5
This Lions team is running hot right now. They are 3-0 against the spread in their last three games. In addition this is the most points they have received all season.
The Lions have generally kept games close as well, even against strong opponents. They’re average point differential this season is -3.2.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) Over 74.5 Total Receiving Yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been the top target for The Lions all season. St. Brown has had five games this season where his longest reception was nearly 30 yards. It only take a couple big plays to open a path for him to easily hit this line.
If The Lions want to stay competitive in this game, they’re going to need to air the ball out and that sets up Amon-Ra St. Brown well.
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Under 45.5
This season The Giants have hit the under in seven out of ten games. The Cowboys have hit the under in six out of ten games this season.
Neither of these teams are particularly high-octane and I largely anticipate the defenses will show up and put the offenses to the test.
New England Patriots +3
It’s tough to bet against The Patriots and Bill Belichick on any day. The New England Patriots have a 6-3-1 record against the spread this season.
The Patriots have been underdogs this season four times and covered two times.
The Vikings, while they are absolutely rolling right now are definitely beatable. The patriots will definitely look to contain all their weapons and look to keep Kirk Cousins off the field as much as possible.
Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions Prediction
The Buffalo Bills will face off against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field this week. The Bills are favorites on the road, The Lions are getting 9.5 points from Vegas.
Kickoff for Bills vs. Lions will be at 12:30 PM EST, on CBS.
- Point Spread: Bills -9.5
- Over/Under Game Total: 54.5
The Bills Predictions
This will be the second time this week that The Bills are playing in Detroit, after The Bills home game was moved to Ford Field because of the weather. But this time they are actually playing The Lions.
Josh Allen will lead The Bills on the offense. This season Allen has averaged nearly 22 pass completions and almost 295 yards per game. Josh Allen is a bit banged up, still nursing an elbow injury. On Sunday Allen had 18 completions for almost 200 yards, which was his lowest performance.
The receiving game for The Bills will be handled by Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Dawson Knox, and Isaiah McKenzie.
Stefon Diggs has averaged almost 8 receptions per game and should see a similar amount of usage in this matchup. Diggs is killing it this season with over 1,000 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns.
This season, Gabe Davis has averaged nearly 6.5 targets per game, his usage should be higher this week. Davis has over 600 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns this season. Gabe Davis has been hauling in over 50% of his targets. Gabe Davis has helped spread the defense this year, forcing opposing teams to choose which receivers to focus their attention.
Dawson Knox has seen over 4 targets per game, ideally he’ll get about the same number of looks this week. Knox has been running quick routes and allowed Josh Allen to look to him in tight situations.
Devin Singletary will carry the majority of the run game for The Bills. This season Singletary has nearly 500 rushing yards and although he’s getting tons of opportunities, he still has fewer rush rushing yards than Josh Allen.
The Lions Predictions
This Lions team has been electric this season! …But it’s important to remember… They’re still The Lions… They’re currently on a 3-game win streak.
Jared Goff will lead The Lions on the offense. This season Goff has averaged 20 pass completions and nearly 245 yards per game. This week Goff should be able to exceed his average passing performance.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kalif Raymond, DJ Chark Jr., and D’Andre Swift will be responsible for receiving for The Lions.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has nearly 6.5 receptions per game but should see much more usage in this matchup. This season St. Brown has nearly 600 receiving yards and is by far Goff’s favorite target. I imagine this will be the same in this game as well.
The Lions will have a split backfield with Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift handling the run game.
In addition to running the ball, D’Andre Swift will also be involved in the passing game. This season Swift has seen nearly 4 targets per game and should see a similar number of looks this week.
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Prediction
The New York Giants will face off against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium this week. The Cowboys are favorites at home, The Giants are getting 10.0 points from Vegas.
Kickoff for Giants vs. Cowboys will be at 4:00 PM EST, on Fox.
- Point Spread: Cowboys -10.0
- Over/Under Game Total: 45.5
The Giants Predictions
Daniel Jones will lead The Giants on the offense. This season Jones has averaged 18 pass completions and nearly 195 yards per game. This week Jones should be able to exceed his average passing performance.
The Dallas Cowboys will likely be looking to put pressure on Daniel Jones in the pocket. Jones should be able to use his speed and agility to run the ball himself.
Saquon Barkley will carry the majority of the run game for The Giants. He’s been averaging nearly 100 rushing yards per game this season. It’s great to see him back and healthy again this season. The Giants will definitely rely on his legs in this game.
The receiving game for The Giants will largely be handled by Darius Slayton and Richie James Jr.
This season, Darius Slayton has averaged nearly 4 targets per game, his usage should be higher this week and should be able to connect much more. He currently has just over 400 receiving yards and two touchdowns, but he should start getting even more involvement moving forward.
Richie James Jr. has nearly 2.5 receptions per game but should see much more usage in this matchup. Richie James Jr. has been the number two target for Daniel Jones all season. In this matchup it should be no different.
The Cowboys defense will definitely look to contain Saquon Barkley and force them to throw the ball.
The Cowboys Predictions
Dak Prescott will lead The Cowboys on the offense. This season Prescott has averaged 20 pass completions and nearly 225 yards per game. This week Prescott should be able to exceed his average passing performance.
The Cowboys will have a split backfield with Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott sharing responsibilities of the run game.
Tony Pollard has really proven himself this season. He has over 700 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns this season.
The Cowboys will have CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz, and Noah Brown handling the receiving. The one great thing about this Cowboys offense is their number of recieving weapons and their ability to get everyone involved.
This season, CeeDee Lamb has averaged nearly 9.5 targets per game, his usage should be higher this week and should be able to connect much more.
Michael Gallup has nearly 2 receptions and almost 5 targets per game but should see much more usage in this matchup.
Dalton Schultz has averaged almost 6 targets per game, and nearly 300 receiving yards this season. Although he only has one touchdown, he is getting tons of usage.
Noah Brown has averaged nearly 4 receptions per game and should see a similar amount of usage in this matchup. Brown has been the number two target behind CeeDee Lamb and has nearly 400 receiving yards this season.
New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings Prediction
The New England Patriots will face off against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium this week. The Vikings are favorites at home, The Patriots are getting 3.0 points from Vegas.
Kickoff for Patriots vs. Vikings will be at 8:20 PM EST, on NBC.
- Point Spread: Vikings -3.0
- Over/Under Game Total: 42.0
The Patriots Predictions
Mac Jones will lead The Patriots on the offense. This season Jones has averaged nearly 18 pass completions and nearly 200 yards per game. This week Jones should be able to exceed his average passing performance.
Rhamondre Stevenson will carry the majority of the run game for The Patriots.
The Patriots will have Jakobi Meyers, Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry, and DeVante Parker handling the receiving.
This season, Jakobi Meyers has seen nearly 7.5 targets per game, ideally he’ll get about the same number of looks this week.
In addition to running the ball, Rhamondre Stevenson will also be involved in the passing game. This season Stevenson has seen nearly 5 targets per game and should see a similar number of looks this week.
Hunter Henry has 2 receptions per game but should see much more usage in this matchup. DeVante Parker has almost 2 receptions per game but should see much more usage in this matchup.
The Vikings Predictions
Kirk Cousins will lead The Vikings on the offense. This season Cousins has averaged nearly 22 pass completions and nearly 245 yards per game. This week Cousins should be able to exceed his average passing performance.
The Vikings will have Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, T.J. Hockenson, and K.J. Osborn handling the receiving.
Justin Jefferson has averaged nearly 8 receptions per game and should see a similar amount of usage in this matchup.
This season, Adam Thielen has seen nearly 7 targets per game, ideally he’ll get about the same number of looks this week.
T.J. Hockenson has seen nearly 8 targets per game, ideally he’ll get about the same number of looks this week.
K.J. Osborn has averaged nearly 4 targets per game, his usage should be higher this week and should be able to connect much more.
Kirk Cousins and The Vikings have tons of options to rely on.
Dalvin Cook will carry the majority of the run game for The Vikings.