Baseball Betting Systems: What Works and What Doesn’t

If you’re looking to make some money betting on baseball, you need to find a system that works. There are a lot of different methods out there, but not all of them work, it’s important to remember this is no secret formula to sports betting. In this blog post, we will talk about the systems that work and how to use them effectively. We’ll also discuss some methods that don’t work so well and why they don’t tend to be successful. So, if you’re ready to start making some money betting on baseball, keep reading!

What is a Baseball Betting System?

A baseball betting system is a process for betting on baseball games that may be duplicated repeatedly. A solid baseball betting system should include three components:

  • A theory that explains why the technique works.
  • A large sample of real-world data.
  • Consistent outcomes above the break-even point.

Not all baseball betting systems have to be based on complex analytics. However, you should be able to backtest your strategy using data to prove its success.

A baseball betting system could be as simple as “Bet on the home team to win in the first game after a loss on the road.” Other examples of a baseball betting system will utilize external data to determine which bets to make. An example of this could be using weather data and a rule like, “Bet the game total under when the wind is blowing in.” The idea in this example is that some fly balls that would be home runs on a typical day may instead become doubles or outs because the wind is keeping the ball in the park.

Types of Betting Systems

There are many different types of betting systems in baseball betting. We will outline several of them here for you to consider using. Another thing to remember is that, while many decent MLB betting systems are available, many of them are useless for a sports gambler wanting to improve long-term profits. It’s also important to remember that sometimes betting systems stop working. The oddsmakers will frequently begin to notice which bets they are losing money on, and as a result, their odds will be changed. Don’t fall into the trap of continuing to wager on something after it has lost its edge.

Fade the Public

The world is filled with casual, generally uninformed sports fans who make meaningless wagers. Everyone jumps on the bandwagon because they want to watch their favorite team win and make a little money at it while they are at it. Betting against the public is based on the fact that these casual fans are frequently incorrect.

The public bettors also love betting on the over in game totals because who wants to cheer for fewer home runs?

How to fade the public in baseball betting: 

  • Bet on underdogs to win or game total under in nationally televised games

Bet the Baseball Park

Not all baseball parks are the same either. Each park has a unique shape, height of the outfield walls, and weather factors like wind can have a massive impact on the game. And since half their games are played at home, teams build their rosters to fit their home ballparks. A team stacked with high power, and low average guys, will struggle in a big park. 

To build a betting system that utilizes park factors, you need to understand the nuances of each stadium. You also need to know which baseball parks are most affected by the weather.

How to bet on baseball games using park factors:

  • Determine which parks lend themselves to fewer home runs.
  • Combine this with fading the public.
  • Bet the under when the game total is higher than average for the park.

Bet the Umpires

The umpires have a significant influence on the game. If the home plate umpire has a huge strike zone, the pitchers will be able to paint corners, keep the ball down, and the game will be tight and low scoring with more strikeouts. On the other hand, if the umpire is calling the game tight, the pitcher will have to deliver the ball right down the middle, giving batters an advantage and likely a high-scoring encounter.

How to use umpire data to bet on baseball games: 

  • Determine which umpires have the largest strike zone 
  • Bet the under in games where those umpires are the home plate umpire

What is a Baseball Betting Model?

A baseball betting model is a tool for predicting the probability of all outcomes in a game. A baseball betting model is based on math to remove any external bias to identify profitable wagering opportunities more accurately than a bookmaker. Many tools may be used to build a baseball betting model. However, most are created in Excel or utilize a statistic framework in Python, R, or other programming languages.

By building a baseball betting model, you can do your own baseball handicapping and win at a higher rate. Be aware, it’s challenging to create an MLB betting model. Still, once you’ve built it, it becomes the most essential element of your betting analysis.

Most successful sports bettors use their models to create higher profits. MLB betting models, arbitrage betting, and well-defined baseball betting systems are some of the most effective strategies for higher profits in baseball betting. Baseball betting models are based on math and analytics to handicap baseball games and player props, using similar methods that the bookmakers use. To be successful at sports betting, you must understand how to balance “good” odds with long-term money management techniques.

How to Identify Good Bets in Baseball

A simple method to find good baseball bets is to compare bookmakers’ odds. For example, if most sportsbooks have a moneyline at -150 but find another sportsbook offering the same bet for -110, that would be a good value bet.

Suppose a smaller bookmaker didn’t move the line after other major sportsbooks moved the lines. In that case, you could know that this is potentially a good bet without picking the winner yourself or giving too much weight to your personal opinion about the game. In instances like this, you could possibly utilize arbitrage betting as well. However, it’s important to remember that these opportunities are rare because oddsmakers are much quicker to react to news and line movement.

How to Build a Baseball Betting Model

You’ll need to gather data from past seasons for each team’s hitting, defense, and pitching success. Data in baseball is widely available. FanGraphs and Statcast are two great places to start. Baseball has the most resources available for analytics, research, and sophisticated statistics of major American sports. The sample size of baseball data is also much larger and more reliable.

Building a baseball betting model is similar to creating any other predictive model. You’ll need to decide on the target stats and any input variables. One of the unique aspects of baseball is that player performance is much easier to isolate and predict using data. In other sports like football and basketball, outcomes are highly dependent on many factors. In baseball, games can essentially be reduced to simply pitcher versus batter and factoring in which baseball park they are playing.

The first step to building a predictive model is understanding your historical data. You need to determine what statistics are most important in predicting the probability of winning. After you have a good understanding of the historical data, you can build your model.

Next, you need to determine which events you want to predict. I recommend game totals or moneyline bets (outright winner) as a good starting point. Then you need to come up with a method to calculate the probability of each event occurring. Will you use basic statistics like Bayesian inference or logistic regression? Or will you use machine learning to build a more complex model? In this case, I would suggest you use what you are most comfortable with.

After you have built your model, it is essential to backtest it. This means testing how well it would have performed in the past using data that it has not seen before. If your model is successful in backtesting, you can begin to use it for live betting.

Conclusion of Betting Systems

If you don’t have the time to look into each of these factors every day or have the skills necessary to build your own sports betting model, then start by monitoring the free MLB picks we release every day. If you want picks, news, and updates direct to your inbox, sign up for our newsletter below!